B.C. anticipates solid housing market despite tariffs

The Ministry of Finance is forecasting unit sales growth and rising prices in coming years

Despite being tabled the same day as steep U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs took effect, the B.C. government’s budget contained a surprisingly steady outlook for the province’s housing sector, with no major contractions forecast.

In the Ministry of Finance’s projections, unit home sales are expected to increase by 13.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, due to interest-rate cuts and federal changes that increased the $1 million price cap for insured mortgages to $1.5 million, and made 30-year amortizations available to first-time buyers and all new-build buyers.

Further out, the ministry expects home sales to average 1.9-per-cent growth annually between 2027 and 2029.

Meanwhile, the average home sale price is expected to rise by 2.4 per cent in 2025, followed by 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 2.9 per cent annually on average in the medium term.

Factoring in both demand and price, the budget estimates that the total value of home sales in B.C. will increase by 15.9 per cent this year and 6.7 per cent next year.

The 158-page document also examined housing starts, noting the near-term outlook has softened “slightly.”

B.C. minister sees more housing certainty ahead despite trade war worries

Ravi Kahlon talks infrastructure, transit, supportive housing with industry audience in Vancouver

Jami Makan
Feb 28, 2025 3:30 PM

B.C. Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon addressed an Urban Land Institute audience on Friday, Feb. 28 at Vancouver’s Terminal City Club. | Jami Makan, BIV

Despite a looming trade war with the Americans, B.C. Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon says more certainty should come to the province’s housing sector in 2025.

This comes as all B.C. municipalities are required to update their official community plans (OCPs) by year’s end.

Home sales register a strong finish to cap off 2024

Home sales registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver rose over thirty per cent in December, compared to the previous year, signalling strengthening demand-side momentum to close out 2024.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 26,561 in 2024, a 1.2 per cent increase from the 26,249 sales recorded in 2023, and a 9.2 per cent decrease from the 29,261 sales in 2022.

Last year’s sales total was 20.9 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average (33,559).

“Looking back on 2024, it could best be described as a pivot year for the market after experiencing such dramatic increases in mortgage rates in the preceding years,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics. “With borrowing costs now firmly on the decline, buyers have started to show up in numbers after somewhat of a hiatus – and this renewed strength is now clearly visible in the more recent monthly data.”

Housing market poised for 2025 comeback as lower rates unleash pent-up demand

After a series of interest rates, could we be in for a real estate boom in 2025? Business Editor Kris McCusker is looking at why some experts are feeling optimistic about the year ahead.

As the calendar flipped one year ago, Canadian real estate watchers were optimistic a sluggish 2023 would give way to a rebound, with hopes of renewed demand as soon as the spring.

But the lag in 2024 lasted longer than some expected, with the Bank of Canada waiting until June to deliver the first of the year’s five interest rate cuts. While buyers stormed back to the market this fall, experts noted the first few rate cuts hadn’t been enough to motivate everyone to leave the sidelines quite yet.

Now heading into 2025, economists and real estate agents believe activity is poised to remain strong amid much lower borrowing costs and more favourable rules for buyers, despite an overall challenging affordability picture.

B.C.’s real estate market in 2025 will be more balanced, analyst says

Rob Easton · CBC · Posted: Dec 20, 2024 5:00 AM PST | Last Updated: December 20

The B.C. Real Estate Association says it’s expecting a fairly even balance between the number of people selling and seeking homes in the province in 2025, although its chief economist says a couple of factors could still disrupt an otherwise “boring” upcoming year.

In its latest housing market update, the association says 2025 will see things settling down following a handful of more turbulent years, namely the post-pandemic sellers market fuelled by low interest rates and the interest rate shock of 2022-23.

Its chief economist, Brendon Ogmundson, said B.C. is now seeing a “balanced market” — where the number of homes for sale matches the number of people actively looking to buy — shown in the chart below as between .10 and .20.

And with borrowing costs coming down, Ogmundson said it should make monthly payments more manageable for those taking on a mortgage.

Home buyer demand continues to strengthen in November

Home sales registered in the MLS® in the Metro Vancouver market rose 28 percent year-over-year in November, building on the momentum of the 30 percent year-over-year increase seen in October.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,181 in November 2024, a 28.1 per cent increase from the 1,702 sales recorded in November 2023. This was 12.8 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,500).

“When we saw demand pick up in October, there was still a question over whether it was a blip in the data or the start of an emerging trend,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “While the November market isn’t quite a Cyber Monday door-crasher, buyers are continuing to take advantage of the relatively balanced market conditions while they last.”

Expert Opinion: 2024, The Year Canada’s Housing Industry Was Brought To Its Knees

“The longer term 2024 forecast proved less accurate than we’d hoped, as we optimistically — but falsely — predicted government interventions would be helpful through the year. (Instead, they proved quite the opposite.)”

As 2024 comes to an end, we are looking back at all that happened, and ahead to what’s on the horizon.

To begin, we revisited what we said this time last year. Having come off of a strong(ish) Q4 in 2023 with positive signs ahead, we certainly got some things right. But the longer-term forecast was less accurate than we’d hoped, as we optimistically — but falsely — predicted government interventions would be helpful through 2024. (Instead, they proved quite the opposite.)

We predicted that activity would pick up some in Q1, starting with a slow build as governments enacted new housing policy, rates came down, and immigration continued. Q1 was steady for sales and launches and, despite rate drops lagging till June (as opposed to the April timeline we had predicted), developers released the most inventory in Q2, albeit to softer demand than anticipated.

Why December could be the perfect month to buy or sell

With the holiday season typically being a slow time for real estate markets, it might not seem like the ideal time to buy or sell. But despite the colder weather and darker days there are benefits to transacting this month and, as a Realtor, staying top-of-mind as the holiday season approaches.

Why buy or sell during the holidays?

Charles Jaque, president and CEO of RDS Brokerage explains that sellers have the opportunity to stand out among fewer listings and less competition. He explains that leading up to the holidays, people are distracted and their attention strays from big decisions like real estate, so sales typically outpace new listings. That decreased competition can make it a great time to list. “December tends to be the lowest month on average for new listings in Toronto, and this is similar nationwide,” he notes.

Adrienne Lake, managing broker of Corcoran Horizon Realty agrees, “This will continue until January (and) there will be less inventory on the market.” She says these conditions make it easier for homes to stand out and sell against the competition that does exist.read more→

Buyer demand surges in October

VANCOUVER, BC – November 4, 2024 – After months of tracking approximately twenty per cent below the ten-year seasonal average, Metro Vancouver1 home sales surged more than 30 per cent year-over-year in October.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales2 registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in the region totalled 2,632 in October 2024, a 31.9 per cent increase from the 1,996 sales recorded in October 2023. This was 5.5 per cent below the 10- year seasonal average (2,784).

“Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand, and the strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “To some market watchers, this rebound may come as a surprise, but with four consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada – and more likely to come on the horizon – it was only a matter of time until signs of renewed strength in demand showed up.”

Buyers Remain Cautious To Begin The Fall Market

Home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver¹ declined 3.8 per cent year over year in September, suggesting recent reductions in borrowing costs are having a limited effect in spurring demand so far.

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)² reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,852 in September 2024, a 3.8 per cent decrease from the 1,926 sales recorded in September 2023. This was 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,502).

“Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said.