Expert Opinion: 2024, The Year Canada’s Housing Industry Was Brought To Its Knees

“The longer term 2024 forecast proved less accurate than we’d hoped, as we optimistically — but falsely — predicted government interventions would be helpful through the year. (Instead, they proved quite the opposite.)”

As 2024 comes to an end, we are looking back at all that happened, and ahead to what’s on the horizon.

To begin, we revisited what we said this time last year. Having come off of a strong(ish) Q4 in 2023 with positive signs ahead, we certainly got some things right. But the longer-term forecast was less accurate than we’d hoped, as we optimistically — but falsely — predicted government interventions would be helpful through 2024. (Instead, they proved quite the opposite.)

We predicted that activity would pick up some in Q1, starting with a slow build as governments enacted new housing policy, rates came down, and immigration continued. Q1 was steady for sales and launches and, despite rate drops lagging till June (as opposed to the April timeline we had predicted), developers released the most inventory in Q2, albeit to softer demand than anticipated.

Why December could be the perfect month to buy or sell

With the holiday season typically being a slow time for real estate markets, it might not seem like the ideal time to buy or sell. But despite the colder weather and darker days there are benefits to transacting this month and, as a Realtor, staying top-of-mind as the holiday season approaches.

Why buy or sell during the holidays?

Charles Jaque, president and CEO of RDS Brokerage explains that sellers have the opportunity to stand out among fewer listings and less competition. He explains that leading up to the holidays, people are distracted and their attention strays from big decisions like real estate, so sales typically outpace new listings. That decreased competition can make it a great time to list. “December tends to be the lowest month on average for new listings in Toronto, and this is similar nationwide,” he notes.

Adrienne Lake, managing broker of Corcoran Horizon Realty agrees, “This will continue until January (and) there will be less inventory on the market.” She says these conditions make it easier for homes to stand out and sell against the competition that does exist.read more→

Buyer demand surges in October

VANCOUVER, BC – November 4, 2024 – After months of tracking approximately twenty per cent below the ten-year seasonal average, Metro Vancouver1 home sales surged more than 30 per cent year-over-year in October.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales2 registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in the region totalled 2,632 in October 2024, a 31.9 per cent increase from the 1,996 sales recorded in October 2023. This was 5.5 per cent below the 10- year seasonal average (2,784).

“Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand, and the strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “To some market watchers, this rebound may come as a surprise, but with four consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada – and more likely to come on the horizon – it was only a matter of time until signs of renewed strength in demand showed up.”

Buyers Remain Cautious To Begin The Fall Market

Home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver¹ declined 3.8 per cent year over year in September, suggesting recent reductions in borrowing costs are having a limited effect in spurring demand so far.

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)² reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,852 in September 2024, a 3.8 per cent decrease from the 1,926 sales recorded in September 2023. This was 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,502).

“Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said.

Canadian house prices could rise by up to 6% in steady fall market

Interest rate cuts should spark buying activity says RE/MAX Canada

By Steve Randall, Sep 03, 2024

There could be a boost for owners of residential real estate assets in the months ahead as lower interest rates adds fuel to the Canadian housing market.

RE/MAX Canada’s 2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook is out today (September 3) and calls for average house prices to rise between one and six percent across 76% of its broker regions surveyed, as rate cuts lead to a steady market.

However, there are some notable areas where prices are expected to be flat or even decline, such as Toronto, Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Charlottetown, North Bay and London.

Sellers Await Buyers’ Return After Quieter Summer Market

Home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver remained below their ten-year seasonal averages in August as summer holidays come to a close.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,904 in August 2024, a 17.1 per cent decrease from the 2,296 sales recorded in August 2023. This total was also 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,572).

“From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July. In this respect, this August has been no different,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “With that said, sales remain in a holding pattern, trending roughly 20 per cent below their 10-year seasonal average, which suggests buyers are still feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.”

The realities of working in European real estate: A different pace with unique challenges

Fantasizing about living and working abroad is practically a national pastime here. Europe looms large in many people’s daydreams, with visions of closing down shop there in the afternoons, having a leisurely lunch then later enjoying an evening stroll around the piazza arm-in-arm with friends or family.

“It can be quite the idyllic lifestyle,” affirms realtor Valerie Dooley of Forest Hill Real Estate in Toronto. Dooley lived in Italy for years and still takes on the occasional European transaction. She describes the pace there as “more laid-back, like stepping back into another century.”

‘A relaxed lifestyle, with multigenerational families often cohabiting’

European culture “embraces a relaxed lifestyle, with multigenerational families often cohabiting,” she continues. “You work less hours, with personal and leisure time put ahead of work schedules. Quality of life is paramount.”

As the maxim goes, Europeans work to live, not live to work.

Restrictive covenants not wiped out by new B.C. housing law, province admits

3150 Chrisdale Ave in Burnaby. which the owner wants to sell to a buyer who plans to convert it to a small apartment building but has been stopped by an old restriction on the land title. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /PNG

The B.C. government acknowledged Tuesday that housing legislation it passed to allow more housing units on single-family lots does not override old land-title covenants that could restrict the construction of multi-unit buildings on a property.

How many land titles have such covenants or clauses is uncertain — the Ministry of Housing said it does not keep track — but some real estate experts said there are likely thousands.

More Selection Not Translating to More Transactions

Newly listed properties registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) rose nearly twenty per cent year over year in July, helping to sustain a healthy level of inventory in the Metro Vancouver¹ housing market.

Sales

On the demand side, the Greater Vancouver REALTORS®² (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,333 in July 2024, a 5 per cent decrease from the 2,455 sales recorded in July 2023. This was 17.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,831).

“The trend of buyers remaining hesitant, that began a few months ago, continued in the July data despite a fresh quarter percentage point cut to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate.”Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics

“With the recent half percentage point decline in the policy rate over the past few months, and with so much inventory to choose from, it’s a bit surprising transaction levels remain below historical norms as we enter the mid-point of summer.”

Market shifting in buyers’ favour, though hesitation remains

Metro Vancouver home sales registered on the MLS® remained below seasonal and historical averages in June. With reduced competition among buyers, inventory has continued to accumulate to levels not seen since the spring of 2019.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,418 in June 2024, a 19.1 per cent decrease from the 2,988 sales recorded in June 2023. This was 23.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,166).

“The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions.”
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