Canadian house prices could rise by up to 6% in steady fall market

Interest rate cuts should spark buying activity says RE/MAX Canada

By Steve Randall, Sep 03, 2024

There could be a boost for owners of residential real estate assets in the months ahead as lower interest rates adds fuel to the Canadian housing market.

RE/MAX Canada’s 2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook is out today (September 3) and calls for average house prices to rise between one and six percent across 76% of its broker regions surveyed, as rate cuts lead to a steady market.

However, there are some notable areas where prices are expected to be flat or even decline, such as Toronto, Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Charlottetown, North Bay and London.

Sellers Await Buyers’ Return After Quieter Summer Market

Home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver remained below their ten-year seasonal averages in August as summer holidays come to a close.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,904 in August 2024, a 17.1 per cent decrease from the 2,296 sales recorded in August 2023. This total was also 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,572).

“From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July. In this respect, this August has been no different,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “With that said, sales remain in a holding pattern, trending roughly 20 per cent below their 10-year seasonal average, which suggests buyers are still feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.”

The realities of working in European real estate: A different pace with unique challenges

Fantasizing about living and working abroad is practically a national pastime here. Europe looms large in many people’s daydreams, with visions of closing down shop there in the afternoons, having a leisurely lunch then later enjoying an evening stroll around the piazza arm-in-arm with friends or family.

“It can be quite the idyllic lifestyle,” affirms realtor Valerie Dooley of Forest Hill Real Estate in Toronto. Dooley lived in Italy for years and still takes on the occasional European transaction. She describes the pace there as “more laid-back, like stepping back into another century.”

‘A relaxed lifestyle, with multigenerational families often cohabiting’

European culture “embraces a relaxed lifestyle, with multigenerational families often cohabiting,” she continues. “You work less hours, with personal and leisure time put ahead of work schedules. Quality of life is paramount.”

As the maxim goes, Europeans work to live, not live to work.

Restrictive covenants not wiped out by new B.C. housing law, province admits

3150 Chrisdale Ave in Burnaby. which the owner wants to sell to a buyer who plans to convert it to a small apartment building but has been stopped by an old restriction on the land title. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /PNG

The B.C. government acknowledged Tuesday that housing legislation it passed to allow more housing units on single-family lots does not override old land-title covenants that could restrict the construction of multi-unit buildings on a property.

How many land titles have such covenants or clauses is uncertain — the Ministry of Housing said it does not keep track — but some real estate experts said there are likely thousands.

More Selection Not Translating to More Transactions

Newly listed properties registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) rose nearly twenty per cent year over year in July, helping to sustain a healthy level of inventory in the Metro Vancouver¹ housing market.

Sales

On the demand side, the Greater Vancouver REALTORS®² (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,333 in July 2024, a 5 per cent decrease from the 2,455 sales recorded in July 2023. This was 17.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,831).

“The trend of buyers remaining hesitant, that began a few months ago, continued in the July data despite a fresh quarter percentage point cut to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate.”Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics

“With the recent half percentage point decline in the policy rate over the past few months, and with so much inventory to choose from, it’s a bit surprising transaction levels remain below historical norms as we enter the mid-point of summer.”

Market shifting in buyers’ favour, though hesitation remains

Metro Vancouver home sales registered on the MLS® remained below seasonal and historical averages in June. With reduced competition among buyers, inventory has continued to accumulate to levels not seen since the spring of 2019.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,418 in June 2024, a 19.1 per cent decrease from the 2,988 sales recorded in June 2023. This was 23.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,166).

“The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions.”
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Home sales down in May while inventory continues to increase

The number of transactions on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) declined in May compared to what is typical for this time of year in Metro Vancouver(1). This shift has allowed the inventory of homes available for sale to continue to accumulate with over 13,000 homes now actively listed on the MLS® in the region.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)(2) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,733 in May 2024, a 19.9 per cent decrease from the 3,411 sales recorded in May 2023. Last month’s sales total was also down 19.6 per cent from the 10-year seasonal average for May (3,398).

“The surprise in the May data is that sales have come in softer than what we’d typically expect to see at this point in the year, while the number of newly listed homes for sale is carrying some of the momentum seen in the April data,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “It’s a natural inclination to chalk these trends up to one factor or another, but what we’re seeing is a culmination of factors influencing buyer and seller decisions in the market right now. It’s everything from higher borrowing costs, to worries about the economy, to policy interventions imposed by various levels of government.”

Inventory at highest level since pandemic summer of 2020

Actively listed homes for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver continued climbing in April, up 42 per cent year-over-year, breaching the 12,000 mark, a number not seen in the region since the summer of 2020.

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,831 in April 2024, a 3.3 per cent increase from the 2,741 sales recorded in April 2023. This was 12.2 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,223).

“It’s a feat to see inventory finally climb above 12,000. Many were predicting higher inventory levels would materialize quickly when the Bank of Canada began its aggressive rate hikes, but we’re only seeing a steady climb in inventory in the more recent data,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “The surprise for many market watchers has been the continued strength of demand along with the fact few homeowners have been forced to sell in the face of the highest borrowing costs experienced in over a decade.”

Canadians are more confident in buying a home, despite the impact of inflation: RBC Poll

More respondents plan to buy in the next two years and believe it’s a good investment
50% are saving less to buy a home due to inflation
57% would need a side hustle or second job to afford a home
58% are worried about covering the costs of home ownership (66% among next-time home buyers)

TORONTO, April 23, 2024 – Despite affordability challenges and inflation continuing to impact how and when Canadians buy a home, confidence in making the move to purchase a home is rising. According to RBC’s 30th annual Home Ownership Poll, conducted among Canadians under the age of 65, 60% believe owning a house or condo is a good investment (up from 53% in 2023) and 29% are looking to buy in the next two years (up from 22% in 2023). Two-thirds (64%) say they have always dreamed of owning a home.

At the same time, the research found that half (50%) of Canadians say inflation is eroding their ability to save for a home. This challenge is acutely felt among those planning to purchase a home within the next two years. Among these potential buyers, there has been a 37% decrease in the total amount they have saved to put towards buying a home. Among those who have saved some amount, 36% say they aren’t putting aside money every month for a home purchase (up from 8% in 2023). Even with this setback, 41% of overall potential home buyers say it will take them four years or less to save enough for a down payment.

BC aims to protect strata owners with new regulations that close loopholes

BC strata owners will soon no longer be surprised by long-term repair and replacement costs as the province closes loopholes.

In a statement from the Ministry of Housing Monday, it said loopholes that allowed strata corporations to indefinitely defer depreciation reports will close. This means strata owners will have more “certainty and consistency” around common property repair and maintenance when the regulations take effect on July 1, 2024, the province said.

“No one wants to be surprised by a sudden special levy to cover repairs that should have been planned for,” Ravi Kahlon, Minister of Housing, said in a statement. “These regulations will help protect strata owners by ensuring depreciation reports are obtained regularly, providing them with the information and predictability they need to plan for future costs.”